In a recent post, we see some rather controversial comments from Ken Camp:
Skype�s in bigger trouble than we know. I think we�ll see more shakeup and trouble at Skype. Soon.
Wow. Skype bashing is normally off limits, in an almost eerie kind of way. I have always been fascinated by the mindless loyalty to Skype, regardless of their actions and motives. Now we’re starting to see a few brave subjects questioning the integrity of the emperor’s attire.
So let’s step back and take a look at whether Ebay is getting any of the things they wanted out of the deal. They put out their own document in May giving their reasons for making this deal. That document is no longer located on the original link: (http://investor.ebay.com/downloads/050912ebay.pdf) but I’m sure a Google search with find you a copy.
Some of those reasons were (verbatim from the above document):
- Skype will accelerate commerce on eBay
- Skype opens up new lines of business, new monetization models, new geographies
- A great standalone communications business
Let’s take a look at these, one at a time.
Skype will accelerate commerce on eBay
Despite Meg Whitman’s protestations to the contrary, Skype/Ebay integration is almost non-existent. Nine months after the acquisition, certain categories of Ebay auctions were treated to “Skype Me” buttons. There are no indications that this has had much of an impact. In fact, there are many reports suggesting that sellers have no interest in live communication.
Personally, I think there is a great deal of potential here, but less in terms of what Ebay has proposed to date, not “bolting on” Skype to Ebay, but creating an entirely new platform leveraging the power of Skype, such as a platform for “service auctions” perhaps more like a hybrid of Craig’s List and Elance, all with integrated real-time communications. But there has been almost no indication that such things are on the horizon.
Skype opens up new lines of business, new monetization models, new geographies
This single goal/benefit is really three somewhat separate things. I’m going to focus on new geographies because that’s what I’ve always heard to be a big part of this transaction. One of the big “synergies” with this deal was supposed to be that Ebay is huge in the US, and not so big outside the US, and Skype is just the opposite. Skype was supposed to help Ebay take over certain regions and Ebay was supposed to help Skype gain traction in the US. Ebay’s sponsering of calls for US users was clearly an attempt to achieve this.
Has this worked? I don’t see much evidence for it. 86% of Skype’s revenues still come from outside the US. Likewise, Skype’s impact to Ebay’s market share outside the US seems to be essentially none. I could be missing some data points. Is there something I’m missing?
A great standalone communications business
Is Skype a business yet? Skype has yet to produce
$100MM $200MM in revenue but they are on a $240MM annual revenue run rate. Ebay’s revenue is $1.45B by comparison. Skype’s overall revenue and subscriber growth are slowing. It’s a business. Perhaps not a $4.5B business, but a business for sure. But I don’t think any of this matters. Ebay didn’t buy Skype for its standalone revenue potential. Ebay bought Skype because of the user base. But as Tom Evslin has said “No user has a long term contract with Skype.”
So what’s the final verdict? Is Ebay getting their money’s worth from Skype? Are they getting anything of value?
I would say, based on their own objectives cited above, they are not, at least not yet. Skype is doing okay as a stand-alone business, but Ebay could have done as well buying a ball-bearing manufacturer if that’s all they wanted (and for a lot less money). At some point, for this deal to pay off, 2+2 has to equal a lot more then 4, and at this point, that’s not happening. At this point, the main benefit that Ebay has gotten out of this deal is they prevented anyone else from buying Skype. But that’s a pretty expensive end result, given they spent an entire year’s worth of their net revenue on Skype. They are going to have to fish or cut bait on this thing, so Ken may very well be right that we will see more indications of trouble to come.
What do you think?
Ebay will sell Skype for $1b more than they would a ball-bearing manufacturer in two years time.
Just a correction – Skype had close to 200MM revenue in 2006, not 100MM as you state.
To chime in, I’ve had annoying problems with Skype since signing up for their $14.95 unlimited plan. I signed up on December 19 and everything worked for a while. But then Skype seemed to forget that I had ever purchased the unlimited plan, and started charging me by the minute (deducting from the few pennies worth of credit they seemed to have deposited into my account as a demo).
I went to heartbeat, today, and saw that the Skype folks said that they had some oddball billing problems that were resolved by December 17 (two days before I bought) and that some people’s registrations had been lost, with their monies refunded. That sounds sort of like what happened to me. Except that it supposedly cleared up before I subscribed.
I looked at my credit card account online, today. It appears that the Skype charge (which I thought I saw in December) has disappeared (not charged then refunded, but just disappeared).
So… That’s just my story. I’m going to look for an alternative VOIP provider now. Something that will work through my computer for cheap (no need to support a handset).
Thank you, Mr. Blog, for getting this topic up.
Skype now seems to have a new problem.
While their $14.95 for unlimited North American calling is still be advertised (on the site and through email) after trying to sign up, just prior to the submit button, the price is raised to $29.95.
I guess the month of January ends 6 days early this year, must be some new energy initiative.
Did you try Skype-based RSS reader, Anothr.com?
skype sucks… ordered the unlimited plan in december paid jan 4th still no service.
it is a scam!